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研究和报告

2020年全球风险报告

 


《全球风险报告》由世界经济论坛携手Marsh & McLennan Companies联合发布,广泛深入的分析了2020年以及未来十年可能对世界产生影响的重大风险问题。在本期(第15期)报告中,全球近800名专家和决策者按照发生可能性和影响力对风险进行了排序并提供了反馈意见。

"“今年的报告着重分析了全球风险格局中的主要风险。国家之间和国家内部的对抗进一步加剧,在应对某些关键的全球性问题上,全球各国的紧迫感不断增强。” 

John Drzik, Marsh & McLennan Insights主席

新的风险格局

地缘政治动荡

很多国家的政治出现分化和“倒退”,国际关系进一步恶化。这些动荡可能持续存在,导致各国在关键优先领域的合作努力受到挑战。

经济风险

随着大国之间经济对抗的日益加剧,全球经济呈现出一致放缓的迹象。

气候问题应对不足

自然巨灾频发,其造成的影响也愈加深远,在此背景下,国际公约的约束力不强,给投资者和公众的行动带来了压力。对于各国来说,2020年是关键的一年,各国应当以此为契机加速实现重大减排目标并推动适应性投资蓬勃发展。

生物多样性丧失的影响

许多生态系统都在衰退甚至面临灭绝的风险。生物多样性的丧失将给社会、经济和地球健康带来不可逆转的后果。

技术治理不足

新兴技术风险可能破坏社交网络、危害经济稳定、加剧地缘战略竞争并给国家和国际安全带来压力。要更好地应对系统性风险,需要在各个层面对技术治理实行重大调整和更新。

艰难运行中的卫生体系

不断变化的社会、环境、人口和技术趋势正在使全球卫生体系承压。虽然变革性技术、药品和保险可以改善医疗保健水平,但它们也带来了新的风险,迫使人们不得不做出新的权衡取舍。

2020年全球风险展望

据《全球风险报告》预测,未来一年国内和国际分化风险以及经济放缓风险将进一步加剧。78%的调查受访者表示,他们预计“经济对抗”和“国内政治分化”风险将在2020年进一步增加。全球专家还认为,极端高温天气、自然生态系统破坏以及旨在破坏运营和基础设施或者窃取数据/金钱的网络攻击风险也将进一步加剧。

预计在2020年会进一步加剧的主要风险


全球风险透视调查受访者(%)

 大国之间的经济对抗/摩擦

78.5%

 国内政治分化

78.4%

 极端高温天气

77.1%

 自然生态系统受到破坏

76.2%

 网络攻击:旨在破坏运营和基础设施

76.1%

 贸易和投资保护主义

76.0%

 民粹主义和本土主义抬头

75.7%

 网络攻击:旨在窃取数据或金钱

75.0%

 某一主要经济体发生经济衰退

72.8%

 无法控制的火灾

70.7%

风险展望:未来十年的环境风险受到更多关注

在过去十年中,人们对环境风险的担忧一直在上升。在调查的未来十年风险展望部分,环境风险首次占据发生可能性最高的长期风险的前五位,而在影响力最大的长期风险中,环境风险则占了三席。

2020年全球风险格局

Top 10 risks: the scale is 1 for unlikely to 10 for extremely likely. Items are presented in descending order of risk. Extreme weather has a risk of 10 out of 10 and an impact of 7 out of 10. Climate action failure has a risk of 9 out of 10 and an impact of 10 out of 10. Natural disasters has a risk of 8 out of 10 and an impact of 4 out of 10. Biodiversity loss has a risk of 7 out of 10 and an impact of 8 out of 10. Human-made environmental disasters has a risk of 6 out of 10 and an impact of 2 out of 10. Data fraud or data theft has a risk of 5 out of 10 and an impact that is not given. Cyber attacks has a risk of 4 out of 10 and an impact of 3 out of 10. Water Crises has a risk of 3 out of 10 and an impact of 6 out of 10. Global governance failure has a risk of 2 out of 10 and an impact that is not given. Asset bubbles has a risk of 1 out of 10 and an impact that is not given. Weapons of mass destruction has a risk that is not given and an impact of 9 out of 10. Information infrastructure breakdown has a risk that is not given and an impact of 5 out of 10. Infectious diseases has a risk that is not given and an impact of 1 out of 10. This information is given again in the following image, as both images combine to give this information.
Top 10 risks: the scale is 1 for unlikely to 10 for extremely likely. Items are presented in descending order of risk. Extreme weather has a risk of 10 out of 10 and an impact of 7 out of 10. Climate action failure has a risk of 9 out of 10 and an impact of 10 out of 10. Natural disasters has a risk of 8 out of 10 and an impact of 4 out of 10. Biodiversity loss has a risk of 7 out of 10 and an impact of 8 out of 10. Human-made environmental disasters has a risk of 6 out of 10 and an impact of 2 out of 10. Data fraud or data theft has a risk of 5 out of 10 and an impact that is not given. Cyber attacks has a risk of 4 out of 10 and an impact of 3 out of 10. Water Crises has a risk of 3 out of 10 and an impact of 6 out of 10. Global governance failure has a risk of 2 out of 10 and an impact that is not given. Asset bubbles has a risk of 1 out of 10 and an impact that is not given. Weapons of mass destruction has a risk that is not given and an impact of 9 out of 10. Information infrastructure breakdown has a risk that is not given and an impact of 5 out of 10. Infectious diseases has a risk that is not given and an impact of 1 out of 10. This information has also been given in the previous image, as both images combine to give this information.
注:受访者按要求对各种全球性风险发生的可能性进行了评估,分数为1-5分,其中1分代表极不可能发生的风险,5分代表极有可能发生的风险。受访者还评估了每种全球性风险的影响力,分数同样为1-5分,1分表示影响力最小,5分则表示影响力达到灾难级别。为方便阅读,我们对各种全球性风险的名称进行了缩写;有关完整名称和描述,请参见完整报告中的附录A。

 

保持警惕至关重要

了解贵公司如何利用《全球风险报告》识别关键风险问题。