Pandemic forecast models
At the beginning of a pandemic, it can be very difficult for organisations to understand and quantify how their business might be affected as the pandemic progresses. Pandemic forecast models can be used to predict the near-term trajectory of the pandemic. This predictive modelling framework consists of a stochastic metapopulational compartment model coupled with human mobility networks to forecast how the pandemic will spread. With this information, businesses can forecast how the pandemic will develop and affect their operations and make plans to improve business continuity, employee safety and financial viability.
Marsh and our pandemic research partner, Metabiota, can offer expert support to organisations seeking to understand and quantify infectious disease risk, consider the impacts of ongoing or potential future epidemic outbreaks, and address potential business and operational impacts. Consulting engagements are tailored to specific client needs, and are led by a team of experienced epidemiologists and risk analysts.
Forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak
Marsh utilises Metabiota’s epidemic surveillance system and global infectious disease simulation engines to project the course of an epidemic as it unfolds. This allows policymakers, public health professionals and organisations to plan response efforts and allocate resources effectively.
These abilities include case projections and geographic spread and have been used to inform organisational responses to the 2018 Ebola virus disease outbreak in Equateur, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and again in 2019 to respond to the Ebola virus disease outbreak in Kivu, DRC.
Metabiota develops a number of disease spread models to quantify the likelihood and severity of plausible outbreak events across the globe. The models are stochastic, event-based; metapopulational epidemiological compartment models and are based on the latest scientific research, incorporating pathogen characteristics, transportation networks, local medical resources, and pandemic preparedness. The simulations produced by the models use a probabilistic sample to generate simulated outbreak event catalogues, which estimate the probability of experiencing epidemics of different sizes and severities.
Marsh and Metabiota use these specific modelling modules to help businesses analyse financial disruptions and losses and to develop business continuity plans.