Risk Outlook February 2020

 

Shifting government attitudes to foreign investment are a common theme across the countries covered in this month's Risk Outlook.

In Uzbekistan and Angola, efforts to improve the business environment and address economic weaknesses will continue in 2020, but businesses will continue to face a complex political risk landscape. In contrast, Mexico's changing energy policy looks set to reduce the role of the private sector.

Risk Outlook provides a detailed, forward-looking assessment of developments within the security, trading, and investment environments in Mexico, Kenya, Angola, Uzbekistan, and Togo.

We aim to provide clarity on dynamic political risk conditions, and how these are likely to impact companies in 2020.

We also provide a Rating Roundup, summarizing a selection of World Risk Review ratings changes in additional countries.

Sovereign Credit Risk Pricing Range

Mexico:
0.5%-0.75% p.a

Kenya:
1.65% p.a

Angola:
3.25%-3.5% p.a

Uzbekistan:
1.95%-2.25% p.a

Togo:
1.5%-1.75% p.a

 

This month's World Risk Review Ratings changes

PHILIPPINES

Contractual Agreement Repudiation (5.3)*

On December 5, 2019, President Rodrigo Duterte's chief legal counsel stated that the government would seek to revise contracts with two water companies. This followed previous statements by Duterte that the government would terminate their contracts.

The permanent court of arbitration recently ruled in favor of the two companies, after they alleged that the government had breached contractual terms by cutting water rates. The dispute came as Duterte held the companies responsible for 2019's water shortages in Manila.

*  0.1 = Low Risk 10 = High Risk

The monthly Risk Outlook is supported by our proprietary country risk rating tool, World Risk Review (WRR), which provides risk ratings across nine insurable perils for 197 countries. The country risk ratings are generated by a proprietary, algorithm-based modelling system incorporating over 200 international indices.

 

MEXICO

In December 2019, Mexico's state-owned power utility Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) announced planned regulatory changes that are likely to limit private-sector participation in the energy market.

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KENYA

President Uhuru Kenyatta reshuffled his cabinet on January 14, as part of efforts to weaken his rival, and deputy president, William Ruto.

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ANGOLA

In 2020, President João Lourenço is expected to continue implementing a program of economic reforms, as part of the country's participation in a three-year International Monetary Fund (IMF) program.

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UZBEKISTAN

Since acceding to the presidency in 2016, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has implemented a program of economic liberalization, ending decades of isolationism.

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TOGO

Togo will hold presidential elections on February 22, 2020, in which President Faure Gnassingbé is expected to secure a fourth term in office.

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