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Navigating Global Risks in the Pacific 2026

Download our practical playbook to explore localised global risk insights for Australia, New Zealand and Pacific leaders in 2026.

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The world is entering an age of disorder. For Pacific leaders, the question is no longer whether these risks will materialise,  but whether you’re prepared.

The World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2026 is clear: we face accelerating disruption, compounding risks, and declining institutional confidence. Half of global leaders surveyed in WEF’s Global Risks Perception Survey 2025–2026, anticipate turbulence in the near term. That figure rises to 57% over the next decade.

For organisations across Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific, these are not distant warnings. They are reshaping supply chains, investment decisions, insurance markets, and boardroom conversations, right now.

Marsh has brought together senior experts from across our market‑leading businesses to translate what this means in practice. We identify four interconnected risk imperatives, viewed through a Pacific‑region lens, and the strategic questions every C‑suite leader should be asking. Download the full report.

50%

of global leaders surveyed in WEF’s Global Risks Perception Survey 2025–2026 expect a turbulent or stormy outlook over the next two years — rising to 57% over the next decade.

(Source: WEF Global Risks Report 2026)

1 in 2

Australians experienced burnout last year, with uncertainty as the leading driver. 

(Source: Beyond Blue, 2025)

#1

Geo-economic confrontation is ranked the global risk most likely to trigger a material crisis in the short term. 

(Source: WEF Global Risks Report 2026)

Four risk imperatives

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Geo-economic confrontation tops the list of short-term global risks. For Pacific economies deeply reliant on trade, the rules governing global commerce are becoming more political and weaponised — tariffs, sanctions, and export controls are now tools of statecraft, not exceptions.

Australia, New Zealand and Pacific Island nations each face unique exposures: critical minerals and LNG, agricultural exports, tourism dependency, and import vulnerabilities. This section maps those exposures and explores how to build supply chains that bend without breaking.

Contributors: Michael Thompson, Oliver Wyman  |  Adity Roy Chowdhury, Marsh Risk  |  Nick White, Mercer

Digital transformation is no longer just a technology conversation — it’s a governance and resilience imperative. Heavy reliance on shared cloud platforms and SaaS ecosystems means a single digital failure can cascade rapidly across organisations and sectors in the Pacific region.

AI is reshaping productivity and decision-making. It's also reshaping the threat landscape. Ransomware groups deploy AI with the same efficiency as the organisations they target. This section examines how boards can close the governance gap and treat cyber and AI risk as balance sheet matters, not just IT issues.

Contributors: Brylee Jaghbir, Marsh Risk  |  Liberty Mudzamba, Marsh Risk

Climate risk has topped the WEF’s long-term outlook for two decades. Extreme weather events remain the number one global risk over the next ten years. Across Australia and New Zealand, ‘climate whiplash’ — rapid swings between flooding, bushfire, and heatwave — is becoming the new normal.

Insurance markets are already signalling this shift. Organisations that proactively adapt are rewarded with better terms; those that delay action face repricing or reduced coverage. This section moves the conversation from sustainability reporting to embedded enterprise resilience.

Contributors: Graeme Riddell, Marsh Risk  |  Nick White, Mercer

Workforce risk is now firmly on the enterprise risk agenda. One in two Australians experienced burnout last year. Psychological claims cost three times more than physical injuries. AI is reshaping roles faster than organisations can reskill people.

These are not just HR issues — they are financial, continuity, and reputational risks. This section explores what genuine workforce resilience looks like: skills-based planning, investment in managers, and the trust that sustains it all.

Contributors: Cynthia Cottrell, Mercer  |  Gretchen Masters, Mercer Marsh Benefits  |  Mark Puskaric, Mercer Marsh Benefits

         

Get the full report

Download our report for insights from Marsh's senior risk experts — distilling the WEF Global Risks Report 2026 into actionable imperatives for leaders in Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific.

Frequently asked questions

The Navigating Global Risks in 2026 report is a comprehensive analysis that distils insights from the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026, tailored specifically for organisations operating in Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific. It highlights four interconnected risk imperatives—geopolitics and global trade, digital transformation, climate and sustainability, and workforce challenges—and provides practical guidance for leaders to build resilience amid accelerating disruption and uncertainty.

This report is designed specifically for executive leaders who hold enterprise-wide responsibility for managing risk within their organisations. It is particularly relevant for Chief Executive Officers (CEOs), Chief Financial Officers (CFOs), Chief Risk Officers (CROs), Chief People Officers (CPOs), and Chief Security Officers (CSOs) operating across Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific region.

Key risks include geopolitical fragmentation and geo-economic confrontation, accelerating digital transformation and cyber threats, climate volatility with extreme weather events, and workforce challenges such as burnout and skills shortages. These risks are interconnected and require integrated enterprise-wide resilience strategies.

Organisations can build resilience by diversifying suppliers and markets, mapping supply chain dependencies beyond Tier 1 suppliers, investing in scenario planning, and collaborating with governments and industry partners to manage risks related to tariffs, sanctions, and export controls. This approach helps mitigate exposure to political volatility and trade fragmentation.

Digital transformation increases efficiency but also concentrates risk due to high reliance on shared cloud platforms and SaaS ecosystems. A single digital failure can cascade across organisations, amplifying cyber insecurity, misinformation, and operational disruptions. Effective governance, clear accountability, and scenario-based planning are critical to managing these risks.

Climate change is driving more frequent and severe extreme weather events, causing supply chain disruptions, infrastructure stress, and workforce impacts. Organisations must embed climate risk into their strategy, use scenario planning to test resilience, invest in adaptive measures, and align insurance and capital decisions to manage these evolving risks effectively.

Workforce risks include rising burnout, mental health challenges, skills shortages, and rapid AI-driven role changes. These risks affect productivity, continuity, and reputation. Organisations can build resilience by investing in skills-based workforce planning, supporting managers, fostering trust and belonging, and proactively reskilling employees to adapt to evolving roles.

Our Navigating Global Risks in the Pacific 2026 is more than an analysis, it’s a practical playbook for Australia, New Zealand and Pacific leaders to help navigate disorder and build lasting strength. Download the report today.

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This publication is not intended to be taken as advice regarding any individual situation and should not be relied upon as such. The information contained herein is based on sources we believe reliable, but we make no representation or warranty as to its accuracy. Marsh shall have no obligation to update this publication and shall have no liability to you or any other party arising out of this publication or any matter contained herein. Any statements concerning actuarial, tax, accounting, or legal matters are based solely on our experience as insurance brokers and risk consultants and are not to be relied upon as actuarial, accounting, tax, or legal advice, for which you should consult your own professional advisors. Any modelling, analytics, or projections are subject to inherent uncertainty, and any analysis could be materially affected if any underlying assumptions, conditions, information, or factors are inaccurate or incomplete or should change.

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