Supply chains in 2026

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Supply chain risks are likely to remain at the forefront of global economic resilience and business continuity challenges in 2026.

Recent years have exposed the fragility and complexity of supply networks, with disruptions reverberating across industries and geographies. Supply chain risks can stem from economic volatility, weather events, labour shortages, cyberattacks, and geopolitical conflicts.

Global supply chain disruptions cost businesses an estimated US$184 billion annually, and Marsh’s Sentrisk™ data shows that 65% of companies face at least one bottleneck in their supply chain. A critical question for 2026 is how companies will anticipate and mitigate the top risks shaping their supply chains.

1. Geopolitical uncertainty: The new normal

Geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt global supply chains through conflicts, trade wars, sanctions, export controls, and shifting alliances. 2026 could see a continuation of rising trade barriers, sudden tariff impositions, and restrictions on critical materials and technologies. This complexity could be heightened by regional conflicts — such as the Red Sea crisis — and the further fragmentation of global trade blocs, forcing companies to reassess their sourcing and manufacturing strategies throughout the year.

A proactive approach to geopolitical risks, including regularly updating scenarios to anticipate and monitor emerging geopolitical risks and reviewing existing or seeking innovative political risk insurance coverages, can help companies stay ahead of shifting dynamics.

2. Climate change: Amplifying disruption

Disruptions caused by extreme weather events are likely to continue to pose a significant risk in 2026. Currently, billion-dollar weather disasters occur every three weeks — four times more frequently than the twelve-week intervals seen in the 1980s.

Climate risks can interrupt supply chains in several ways. Increasingly common droughts are affecting critical waterways such as the Rhine, Danube, and Panama Canal, while flooding elsewhere is leading to port congestion and infrastructure collapse. These challenges compromise global shipping, strain infrastructure resilience, and can drive up operational costs. They can also impact water availability for power generation and manufacturing. Climate impacts on health and workforce productivity (such as extreme heat) further exacerbate operational pressures.

Proactively adapting to a changing climate, whether in terms of resource inputs or supply chain movements, can help prevent business disruption, unlock revenue opportunities, and potentially save future costs.

3. Workforce woes: Addressing shortages and needs

As retirements accelerate, AI adoption expands, and employee expectations evolve, talent shortages in key areas are likely to persist in 2026. Industries such as energy and mining are facing increasing challenges in filling essential roles, which in turn threatens to disrupt critical supply chains through diminished productivity. In addition, labour strikes, such as the port strike in the US in 2024, can also have far-reaching supply consequences.

Recently, tariff-driven shifts and ongoing economic uncertainty have intensified labour market pressures in some sectors, such as manufacturing and logistics. Attracting and retaining talent requires organisations to emphasise the importance of key roles — such as those driving manufacturing location strategies — and explore innovative strategies to sustain and retain their workforce.

4. Cybersecurity: Untangling the web

As organisations embrace digital transformation, they face increasingly complex and evolving cybersecurity risks. A global survey found that almost a third of procurement managers reported an increase in cyberattacks on their supply chains in 2025, with the issue moving up in the list of concerns.

In 2026, five key trends are likely to shape the cybersecurity landscape:

The rise of AI and machine learning used offensively by attackers and defensively by organisations.
The growing exploitation of deepfake technology for identity theft, fraud, and disinformation.
The evolution of ransomware attacks with multifaceted extortion tactics amplified by AI and deepfakes.
The persistent increase in supply chain cyberattacks targeting vulnerabilities in third-party vendors.
The emerging threat of quantum computing, which challenges current cryptographic standards and calls for quantum-resistant encryption.

The interconnectedness of modern business ecosystems, especially through supply chains, creates critical vulnerabilities that threat actors are increasingly exploiting.

Priorities for cyber resilience may include quantifying cyber risk exposures with scenario-based loss modelling, benchmarking potential cyber event losses and costs, considering the effectiveness of cybersecurity controls from a financial perspective, and assessing various cyber insurance programme structures.

5. Critical materials: Securing resources

The security of rare earth minerals and other critical materials is likely to remain a strategic concern, carrying national security and economic implications.

China’s position in rare earth production creates supply vulnerabilities for industries reliant on these minerals, including electronics, renewable energy, and defense. In October 2025, China implemented new export rules requiring licenses for products containing a low percentage of Chinese rare earths or technologies. This move effectively extends China’s strategic influence beyond raw material supply to the processing stages, amplifying global supply chain risks.

In 2026, there may be a growing international effort to bolster supply chain resilience, with companies and governments accelerating efforts in diversification, recycling initiatives, and the development of alternative materials. The US government’s increased investments and strategic partnerships in this space are poised to be a defining trend throughout 2026.

In the face of heightened volatility, organisational resilience for mining companies and those that depend on critical minerals is increasingly important. Risk management solutions can help companies large and small mitigate, manage, and transfer risk across the entire mining lifecycle, while also proactively taking steps to restructure their supply chains.

6. Economic and regulatory pressures: Staying informed

Inflationary pressures and ongoing economic stress continue to challenge supply chain stability. Termed “supply chain inflation,” rising costs across raw materials, energy, labour, and transportation are compressing margins and increasing the risk of supplier insolvencies.

In 2025, US tariffs on steel and aluminum doubled to 50%, reshaping global trade flows and exerting pressure on industries ranging from automotive and construction to manufacturing and energy. Marsh Risk’s Construction Risk Review highlights that financial risk topped contractors’ concerns, closely followed by increased material costs. Although inflationary costs have stabilised in many regions, persistent trade tensions and supply chain disruptions remain key economic risk factors.

Today’s trade compliance environment is also arguably more complex than ever, driven by a trend of increasingly strict compliance requirements related to environmental standards, labour practices, and supply chain transparency. For example, in 2026, the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) takes effect, requiring companies to account for the embedded carbon emissions in certain imported goods.

The trade landscape’s complexity is increased by sanctions, customs laws, and trade agreements, which collectively pose supply challenges in terms of resource allocation, time management, and costs.

Understanding the implications of shifting trade policies can be crucial for assessing potential impacts on businesses. This includes evaluating how changes in trade policies may affect supply chains, identifying areas of exposure, and considering adjustments to sourcing strategies.

Solutions for a resilient supply chain

Balancing multiple, diverse sources of risk is hard: How should companies weigh climate-related threats to supply chains against geopolitical tensions, cyberattacks, or economic disruptions?

While converting these varied risks into a standardised score can provide a useful baseline, resilient supply chains require more sophisticated risk modelling techniques to stress test the potential impacts of different scenarios in terms of damages, downtime, and revenue loss.

To navigate the complex supply chain risk landscape of 2026, companies should embrace a multi-faceted approach to supply chain resilience:

Upstream supply chain transparency: Gaining visibility into tier-two and tier-three suppliers is critical to identify hidden vulnerabilities and dependencies. AI-powered tools, such as Marsh’s Sentrisk™, combined with advanced data analytics, facilitate real-time monitoring and dynamic risk assessment across complex supply networks.
Risk identification and modelling: Integrating geopolitical, climate, cyber, economic, and other factors into sophisticated risk models can support organisations with better-informed decision-making to prioritise mitigation efforts.
Risk transfer and financing: Particularly where risks cannot be effectively mitigated, seeking to transfer financial exposure is the next step. Traditional business interruption insurance tied to physical damage may exclude or limit coverage for losses stemming from supply chain disruptions beyond the first-tier suppliers. Sentrisk enhances risk visibility by uncovering previously unknown supplier data, enabling a deeper understanding of the entire supply chain. This improved insight can allow for more comprehensive contingent business interruption coverage. By identifying new Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers, companies may be able to purchase coverage for these often-overlooked risk points. For example, parametric earthquake insurance might be pursued to address locations not otherwise covered by existing insurance, and can provide prompt payouts to help businesses respond more swiftly to disruptions.
Risk management and crisis preparedness: Developing robust crisis management frameworks — including detailed response plans, regular scenario-based exercises, and cross-functional collaboration — enhances organisational agility and readiness to respond effectively to crises.

The supply chain landscape in 2026 will likely be defined by increasing complexity and heightened uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, climate change, logistics bottlenecks, cyber threats, and resource security challenges are unlikely to go away. However, with new technologies, you can strategically invest in your supply chain to potentially achieve cost savings by enhancing operational efficiency, mitigating risks, and increasing resilience through innovative and more tailored risk transfer solutions.