As part of the M&A Risk and Resilience Forum, Marsh Australia recently hosted a conversation with experts from Oliver Wyman, Gilbert + Tobin, Mercer and Marsh to discuss current M&A trends and risks.
Transactions are often more complex than anticipated and may not progress as initially planned. The risks that emerge in a transaction need to be navigated decisively and with forethought, often under a high stress and time-sensitive environment. Organisations need to not only capture the value when deals succeed, but also be prepared to tackle transactional risks, people implications and other market factors that have the potential to derail transactions.
This article provides insights on the current M&A landscape and tips on how to be prepared so organisations can face risks with confidence and enable more resilient transactions.
As global M&A activity recovered, total deal value rose despite slipping deal volume. The first half of 2025 saw announced M&A deal value totalling approximately $1.1 trillion, representing an 8% increase compared to the same period in the prior year. Yet the number of transactions slipped to 980 – a 3% drop compared to prior year – underscoring a market dominated by fewer, larger strategic plays driven by multiple mega‑deals.
Large transactions in H1, 2025 included Charter Communications’ $36.1 bn bid for Cox Communications, Toyota Industries’ $33.3 bn transaction and Alphabet’s $32 bn acquisition of Wiz Inc. These and other sizable deals underpinned a market shift towards fewer but substantially larger transactions, with the average deal size surging by 11%.
Some local M&A trends include:
The erosion of expected value through execution failures and greater exposure to regulatory, geopolitical and financing constraints have the potential of making M&A transactions more complex and challenging. All parties to a transaction can help mitigate risks. Here are some practical tips to help each respective party stay ahead of the game, manage risk effectively and facilitate a smooth transaction.
Around 70% of M&A deals fail to achieve expected value creation – an uncomfortable truth in M&A transactions. In the world of M&A, deal teams typically focus on financial models, legal due diligence and synergy calculations. However, people‑related risks are a leading cause of M&A underperformance. Labour‑related liabilities, cultural mismatch and loss of key personnel all contribute to the value gap.
Identifying and understanding a deal’s potential people risks early is critical. People related risks can be broadly captured under the following categories in the context of an M&A transaction:
When people risks are overlooked or not mitigated during an M&A transaction—either before Day 1 or in the critical months that follow—the deal almost immediately starts to lose value. Leadership teams that haven’t aligned on purpose, priorities and decision rights create confusion that cascades through the organisation. Employees receive mixed messages, collaboration stalls and legacy ways of working persist far longer than intended. This slows execution, delays synergies and erodes the energy needed to bring two companies together with confidence and momentum.
Just as damaging is the impact on culture and talent. Unaddressed cultural differences quickly turn into “us versus them” behaviours, while uncertainty drives high-performers and client-facing talent to leave. Without clarity on roles, accountability and the new operating model, productivity drops, customer relationships are disrupted and operational risks increase. Ultimately, failing to proactively manage people risks leads to value leakage, slower transformation and a combined business that struggles to realise the strategic intent of the deal.
Practical early action is critical to manage people risks and ensure a smooth transaction.
The current M&A market activity indicates that scale matters, but so does execution. Buyers and sellers must adapt: deploy disciplined pricing, embed deeper diligence, front‑load financing and make people and regulatory workstreams central to deal planning. These strategies can enhance deal resilience and help convert transactions into sustainable value — protecting returns not just at signing, but well into long‑term integration.
Whether you’re a buyer or seller, about to enter into or considering an M&A transaction, working with the right experts can help you derisk and stay ahead of the game. If you’d like to learn more about your transactional risks or have questions about any of the above, please contact a Marsh Private Equity and M&A Services specialist.
References
This publication is not intended to be taken as advice regarding any individual situation and should not be relied upon as such. The information contained herein is based on sources we believe reliable, but we make no representation or warranty as to its accuracy. Marsh shall have no obligation to update this publication and shall have no liability to you or any other party arising out of this publication or any matter contained herein. Any statements concerning actuarial, tax, accounting, or legal matters are based solely on our experience as insurance brokers and risk consultants and are not to be relied upon as actuarial, accounting, tax, or legal advice, for which you should consult your own professional advisors. Any modelling, analytics, or projections are subject to inherent uncertainty, and any analysis could be materially affected if any underlying assumptions, conditions, information, or factors are inaccurate or incomplete or should change.
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