Five trade and supply chain themes to watch in 2026

Businesses preparing for 2026 are likely to be in for another year of twists, turns, and challenging events. In this environment, considering likely developments and maintaining flexible strategies will help firms navigate through short-term anxiety and long-term shifts in global trade and supply chains.

The 2025 experience highlighted the disruptive potential of trade actions, particularly when challenged at both national and global levels. Beyond tariffs — which surged to the highest level in over a century in 2025 — and the various framework agreements and trade deals that remain temporary, incomplete, or contested, businesses also faced headwinds from regulatory actions, flooding and other natural disasters, as well as from unresolved and emerging conflicts around the world.

However, the year also highlighted that while supply chains are often extremely complex, they are generally resilient, even when a confluence of events stretches them to their limits.

By keeping in mind the following five themes, businesses can develop more responsive and resilient trade and supply chain strategies in 2026.

1. Prepare for upcoming trade policy and regulatory decisions

The US Supreme Court’s pending decision on the government’s use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement wide-ranging tariffs could create a renewed period of uncertainty for businesses in 2026.

If the Court rules this application unlawful, many of the bilateral tariff rates negotiated throughout 2025 could be invalidated immediately, and refunds may be owed on the tariffs collected.

While the US government would likely pivot to alternative means to achieve similar tariff rates, the transition may almost certainly trigger another period of regulatory and pricing flux. Different statutory frameworks come with distinct procedural requirements and scopes, meaning businesses should prepare for potential rule changes requiring renewed adaptation strategies, even if the headline rate remains more or less the same.

Further, the US also enters 2026 with several active Section 232 national security investigations. Companies in affected sectors should anticipate potential cost increases as these investigations conclude. Another area to monitor is so-called derivatives lists, which extend tariffs to products containing already-tariffed inputs and which may expand throughout 2026, even where core trade agreements appear settled.

Certain regulatory measures affecting supply chains may also be modified or delayed in 2026. The European Commission faces pressure from exporters and domestic industries to modify or postpone both the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the Deforestation Regulation. Companies with European exposure should closely monitor these developments, as changes could impact compliance timelines and costs.

2. Expect previously settled trade agreements and milestones will be under scrutiny

Many 2025 bilateral trade agreements contained specific commitments — investment targets, procurement requirements for US energy products, and other measurable obligations. Over the course of 2026, the US government will begin to assess compliance with any set milestones. Countries that are considered to be out of compliance with their commitments may face consequences, creating potential supply chain disruptions for companies operating in or sourcing from affected markets.

The stakes are particularly high for the scheduled trilateral review of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA). With Canada and Mexico representing the US’s two largest trading partners, and with bilateral relations remaining unsettled, businesses should carefully track the political process and advocate for their interests rather than adopting a wait-and-see posture.

3. Evaluate the strategic choices shaping supply chains

Beyond specific policy decisions, 2026 will likely be defined by fundamental strategic trade choices governments make in response to structural trade imbalances.

With the world’s largest importer, the US, maintaining elevated tariffs while the world’s largest exporter, China, is continuing to expand export volumes, governments elsewhere face pressure to choose among three broad approaches:

Maintain open markets and accept potential disruptions to domestic industries from an influx of diverted lower-cost goods.
Implement targeted protections for sectors of economic, political, or national security importance.
Deepen regional integration within economic blocs that strengthen internal ties and come with external barriers.

Understanding which path key countries pursue will be crucial for geopolitically aware supply chain strategies. Companies should also identify opportunities within deepening integration frameworks, including the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, the Mercosur-EU agreement, and emerging partnerships such as the Canada-Indonesia arrangement or South Africa’s pursuit of free trade deals with Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia. These represent potential opportunities to enter new markets or expand fledgling relationships while traditional channels face headwinds.

Another potential policy with trade implications includes the proposed Halting International Relocation of Employment (HIRE) Act, which aims to discourage US companies from outsourcing labour and services offshore by making such services more costly. While the bill is not currently advancing in Congress, companies would be wise to evaluate the potential impact on margins and business operations, especially if similar legislation gains more vocal Congressional support throughout the year.

4. Develop plans for unresolved conflicts and emerging ones

The conflict landscape remains unpredictable. In 2025, unexpected escalations included the brief India-Pakistan confrontation following a terrorist attack in Kashmir, and the Cambodia-Thailand border dispute triggered by an unplanned military clash. Meanwhile, long-running conflicts in Sudan, Ukraine, and the Middle East continued. Some may find resolution in 2026, others may intensify, and new flashpoints may emerge.

Risk teams cannot be expected to foresee every conflict. But they can assess vulnerabilities. The priority is identifying where the company’s key exposures or supply chain concentrations are located, then developing scenarios for how conflicts could develop in those areas, however remote the probability seems today. This process can transform potential surprises into more manageable contingencies.

5. Adapt supply chain risk management strategies

Effectively managing the supply chain challenges of 2026 requires rethinking traditional approaches.

One insight from recent years is that long-settled rules governing regulation, financing, trade norms, and economic alignment are increasingly subject to debate and revision. This means businesses must assertively advocate for the structures, rules, and norms that support their operations, or risk seeing them undermined, replaced, or weakened by other interests.

Effective risk management of supply chains in 2026 also requires taking both a short-term and long-term view. A short-term view is needed because environmental risks, natural disasters, conflicts, and policy interventions require rapid response capabilities. At the same time, understanding the broader geopolitical transition is important for restructuring supply chains to accommodate the evolving landscape of international economics, finance, and politics over the years ahead.