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Risk Outlook February 2020


Shifting government attitudes to foreign investment are a common theme across the countries covered in this month's Risk Outlook.

In Uzbekistan and Angola, efforts to improve the business environment and address economic weaknesses will continue in 2020, but businesses will continue to face a complex political risk landscape. In contrast, Mexico's changing energy policy looks set to reduce the role of the private sector.

Risk Outlook provides a detailed, forward-looking assessment of developments within the security, trading, and investment environments in Mexico, Kenya, Angola, Uzbekistan, and Togo.

We aim to provide clarity on dynamic political risk conditions, and how these are likely to impact companies in 2020.

We also provide a Rating Roundup, summarizing a selection of World Risk Review ratings changes in additional countries.

Sovereign Credit Risk Pricing Range

0.5%-0.75% p.a

1.65% p.a

3.25%-3.5% p.a

1.95%-2.25% p.a

1.5%-1.75% p.a


This month's World Risk Review Ratings changes


Contractual Agreement Repudiation (5.3)*

On December 5, 2019, President Rodrigo Duterte's chief legal counsel stated that the government would seek to revise contracts with two water companies. This followed previous statements by Duterte that the government would terminate their contracts.

The permanent court of arbitration recently ruled in favor of the two companies, after they alleged that the government had breached contractual terms by cutting water rates. The dispute came as Duterte held the companies responsible for 2019's water shortages in Manila.

*  0.1 = Low Risk 10 = High Risk

The monthly Risk Outlook is supported by our proprietary country risk rating tool, World Risk Review (WRR), which provides risk ratings across nine insurable perils for 197 countries. The country risk ratings are generated by a proprietary, algorithm-based modelling system incorporating over 200 international indices.

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