Construction will be an economic driver over the medium term with growth averaging 4.4% between 2020 and 2025 – higher than the estimated growth in both the manufacturing and service sectors. Over the period 2020 to 2030 growth in construction output is projected to average approximately 3.5% per annum.
Growth regionally is expected to be highest in Sub-Saharan Africa with average annual growth of 5.7% to 2030 as rising populations and rapid urbanisation provide powerful growth drivers — particularly in East Africa and West Africa.
Growth however will be concentrated in a small number of countries. Just four countries — China, India, US and Indonesia — account for 58.3% of global growth in construction between 2020 and 2030. The top ten markets account for almost 70% of the US$4.5 trillion growth over the next decade.
In 2021, residential construction activity is forecast to be the fastest growing sector globally at 7.1%. The residential sector accounted for 44% of total global construction in 2020 making it is the largest sub-sector and a key driver of global growth.
Construction of infrastructure will grow at 6.8% in 2021 and is predicted to be the fastest growing sub-sector to 2030 with expected average annual growth of almost 4%. This will be fuelled by emerging economies looking to develop energy, transport networks, sewage and waste systems, and other large-scale projects.
The level of government debt influences its capacity to spend on infrastructure construction; debt as a percentage of GDP is an indicator of long-term ability to finance developments.