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How worldwide events are reshaping the political violence risk landscape and insurance

Evolving geopolitical events, and the resulting uncertainty, bring new risks for companies with interests in affected regions, potentially jeopardizing the safety and security of a firm’s people, assets, supply chains, and critical infrastructure.

03/18/2026 · 5 minute read

Political violence events have long impacted people, property, and balance sheets worldwide.

Evolving geopolitical events, and the resulting uncertainty, bring new risks for companies with interests in affected regions, potentially jeopardizing the safety and security of a firm’s people, assets, supply chains, and critical infrastructure.

Recent global civil unrest events have increased awareness of the associated risks, leading to significant shifts in the political violence* insurance marketplace. In certain territories, rates and limits are increasingly being challenged and terms and conditions are being reviewed, in particular for the Middle East. For other high-risk territories, such as Ukraine, underwriters continue to exercise caution, often driven by treaty restrictions and risk appetite. 

* As used here, political violence refers to strikes, riots, and civil commotion (SRCC); war; civil war; malicious damage; mutiny; insurrection; revolution and rebellion; coup d’état; and terrorism and sabotage.

Ongoing events in the Middle East

The US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026. This is a developing regional conflict situation that will be carefully watched for impacts on the property, political violence, and political risk market.

Political violence can be unexpected

Insurers had been writing political violence policies covering exposures in Israel and the Middle East in the days leading up to the attack on Iran on February 28, 2026. Recent political violence events globally — in many cases, taking place against a backdrop of global and socio-economic uncertainty — have been unexpected.

The ACLED Conflict Index ranks the 50 most severe conflicts in the world according to four indicators — deadliness, danger to civilians, geographic diffusion, and the number of armed groups. It notes that in 2026, Gaza and the West Bank, Mexico, and Ukraine are the most dangerous places currently. In addition, it highlights the following as extreme or high risk:

  • Gaza and the West Bank have recorded high levels of violence across nearly 70% of their territory, making it the most geographically diffuse conflict.
  • Myanmar is the most fragmented conflict in the world, with over 1,200 distinct armed groups reported to have been involved in at least one violent event.
  • Pakistan became more dangerous for civilians in the past 12 months and deaths from political violence increased, driven by growing regional insurgencies and a short-lived but intense escalation in fighting with India.
  • Haiti became more deadly and dangerous to civilians, with over 4,500 Haitians killed as a result of political violence and increased targeted violence against civilians.
  • Ecuador became more deadly, with over 1,000 more people killed as a result of political violence in 2025 than in 2024.

The Institute for Economics and Peace’s Global Peace Index 2025 reported a year-on-year deterioration in the average level of global peacefulness of 0.36%, with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remaining the world’s least peaceful region. The global economic impact of violence was estimated at US$19.97 trillion in 2024 — an increase of 3.8% from the previous year.

Global stability is predicted to continue to deteriorate. The World Bank estimates that by 2030 up to two-thirds of the world's extreme poor could live in fragility, conflict, and violence settings.

Key political violence insurance market trends

  1. The evolving conflict in the Middle East is creating significant risks for businesses across sectors and geographies, driving clients to reevaluate their limits purchased, the scope of policy terms and conditions, and their contingency plans. Marsh is closely monitoring the situation and helping clients navigate potential people-related and operational risks, insurance and risk management implications, and investment and financial impacts.

    Insurers are reviewing programs and client data, including potential contingent business interruption impacts that might emanate from supply chains disrupted by the recent conflict. Insurers are also more closely assessing key socio-economic indicators, such as food price index values, GDP, and wealth disparity, that could influence coverage and conditions.

  2. Treaty reinsurance conditions for the political violence and terrorism market have been favorable during recent renewal seasons, but there could be increased scrutiny in 2026, with reinsurers closely monitoring events in the Middle East and the impact on direct insurers.

Selecting coverages or a combination of policies

The ripple effects of political violence on supply chains and critical infrastructure, food supplies, and energy costs, as well as the political and socio-economic protests that have taken place globally, highlight the disruption and economic impact such events can cause.

Businesses can take steps to limit the potential impacts on their people, assets, operations, and finances. Crisis response programs can help mitigate these impacts as can property, property terrorism, and political violence coverage. 

To build the right program for your organization, it is important to understand the common policy types.

  • Property and terrorism policies typically exclude the perils of war, civil war, insurrection, revolution, rebellion, and coup d’etat. However, both policies can often include coverage for strikes, riots, and civil commotion.
  • Property terrorism insurance can provide coverage for physical damage and business interruption resulting from acts that are motivated by politics, religion, or ideology.
  • Political violence insurance can provide coverage related to war, civil war, rebellion, insurrection, coup d’état, and other civil disturbances. 

None of these options provide coverage for employee injuries. That instead falls to workers’ compensation, group health, and other forms of protection available to companies, depending on the country in which those injuries occur.

Which insurance policy is best? That’s not always an easy question to answer. The line between “political violence” and “terrorism” is not always clear. And a company’s unique risk profile may ultimately make purchasing both forms of coverage the right approach.

In building insurance programs to protect against political violence, organizations should work with their risk advisors to:

  • Review the location of critical assets and identify potential risks, which can enable more informed insurance purchasing decisions and help mitigate potential losses.
  • Understand terms, conditions, and limitations in political violence and terrorism insurance policies.
  • Select limits of insurance that will provide the desired level of protection, including in multiple loss scenarios.

It’s important when purchasing insurance to have assessed your organization’s footprint and consider whether additional policies, such as active assailant coverage and non-damage business interruption, are also suited to your needs and risk appetite. Existing policies may also be complemented by political violence insurance, policies that wrap around current coverage, and government programs.

Steps organizations can take to prepare for political violence events:

  • Ensure business continuity and crisis plans are well-tested and updated regularly, incorporating lessons learned from past events.
  • Conduct scenario planning to anticipate the potential effects of events on people, properties, operations, suppliers, and customers.
  • Coordinate the purchase of political violence and/or terrorism insurance with other relevant forms of coverage, including property and business interruption.
  • Understand how the claims process will work and be ready to gather needed information, which may include recording damage via photographs and video as well as documenting extra expenses and other costs associated with recovery.

Taking these steps — and working with advisors to build the insurance program that suits your needs — will help you be more prepared to respond to future events.

Our people

For more information, contact:

Raj Rana

  • United Kingdom

Tarique Nageer

  • United States