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Supply chain risk assessment and scenario planning

Identify, prioritise, and prepare for supply chain risk scenarios to better focus your risk mitigation and transfer strategies.
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Hidden risks require precise risk assessment and planning

Organisations can’t mitigate and manage what they can’t see. 

In today’s complex and dynamic risk environment, supply chain risk assessment and scenario planning are essential to uncover hidden vulnerabilities — such as geopolitical exposure, supplier concentrations, and bottlenecks — and to shift teams from reactive crisis management to prepared decision-making.

Risks organisations face 

>90%

have exposure to a high-risk geopolitical country or an active conflict zone. 

~90%

have more than five suppliers located within a 50 km radius.

65%

have at least one single point of failure hidden in their upstream supply chain.

*The above statistics are based on data from Marsh’s supply chain risk management tool, Sentrisk.”

To address these complex challenges, Marsh developed Sentrisk ™, a dynamic supply chain risk management platform uniting advanced technology, best-in-class supplier data, and deep insurance experience and expertise to:  

  • Assess your most urgent risk priorities, including concentrations and bottlenecks
  • Prioritise risk efforts with proprietary risk scoring and scenario planning
  • Provide deep, validated visibility into your upstream suppliers  
  • Enhance your risk mitigation, management, and transfer strategies  

Align coverage precisely with your risk  

A key feature of Sentrisk is the ability to generate Supplier+ and Snapshot reports to uncover more detailed, validated, and up-to-date supplier data. This enriched data can support: 

  • More detailed, accurate submissions to underwriters 
  • Potentially higher limits for property, contingent business interruption (CBI), and property damage business interruption (PDBI)  
  • Digital preparation of supplier schedules for insurance submissions 
  • More accurate and timely claims processing 
  • Enhanced annual risk reporting and insurance programme reviews

To learn more about how Sentrisk can help you strengthen your insurance outcomes, request a demo. 

Why risk assessment and scenario planning matter

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Hidden exposure limits effective management

Many organisations only maintain visibility into their direct suppliers, leaving critical sub-tier dependencies and geographic concentrations unmonitored. This blind spot hides significant financial and operational risks.

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Disruptions can carry substantial financial consequences

Unplanned downtime can be extremely costly to your organisation, especially if there are risks you remain unaware of deep in your supplier network.

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Reactive risk management is costly and inefficient

Without pre-modelled scenarios, companies spend more time in crisis mode — delaying response and escalation — potentially leading to higher costs and operational setbacks.

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Increasing governance and insurance demands

Boards and insurers require stronger evidence of supply chain resilience, due diligence, and third-party risk management. Structured assessment supports robust reporting and compliance.

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Scenario planning enables preemptive action

Modelling “what if this supplier fails” or “what if tariffs increase” creates decision triggers before disruption hits — shifting teams from reactive to prepared.

How Sentrisk keeps risk assessments current

Supply chain risk assessment systematically identifies, scores, and ranks risks across your supply network, providing a clear, data-driven foundation for prioritising mitigation efforts. Scenario planning models a range of potential disruption events before they occur, quantifying operational and financial impacts to support proactive decision-making. 

Here's how it works

Our experienced risk advisors work with you to organise existing supplier lists, spend data, site locations, and logistics info. Sentrisk fills gaps with AI-driven discovery.

Sentrisk builds a multi-tier supply chain map uncovering previously unknown sub-tier relationships, shared dependencies, geographic concentrations, and single points of failure.

Working with you, we apply a proprietary risk scoring system integrating geopolitical, natural hazard, climate, reputational, and structural risk data to rank exposure and focus efforts.

Use Tariff Simulator and disruption tools to test ‘what-if’ situations, quantify impacts, and evaluate sourcing or network options.

Convert risk insights into actionable plans — sourcing diversification, inventory repositioning, supplier development — and maintain real-time risk awareness with alerts, as well as the support of an experienced Marsh advisor.

Your organisation benefits from:
  • Ranked list of critical suppliers, sites, and components
  • Concentration hotspots and single-point failure flags
  • Prioritised recommendations for mitigation, contingency planning, and insurance review

Model disruption before it happens

Risk assessment shows where exposure sits; scenario planning shows what happens when risks materialise — and what it might cost. Together, they let you test optimisation decisions against disruption before locking them in.

Quantify cost impacts of changing trade policies across supply chain tiers and product categories, surfacing hidden upstream tariff exposure.

Understand cascading effects of supplier failures, site closures, or logistics disruptions to identify where buffers or alternatives are needed.

Test network resilience against natural hazards and climate events to inform near-term and long-term design decisions.

Create pre-agreed triggers and actions to shorten response times and reduce disruption costs.

Your organisation benefits from:
  • Quantified “what-if” impact assessments
  • Scenarios ranked by financial and operational exposure
  • Decision frameworks for sourcing, network, and inventory choices
  • Inputs for insurance optimisation

Case studies

Explore case studies showcasing how Sentrisk helped organisations strengthen their supply chains and build resilience.  

Sentrisk identified sourcing area with high deforestation rate to avoid noncompliance

 

  • Sentrisk identified level of deforestation risk as very high
  • Helped organisation avoid noncompliance through comprehensive risk assessment and analysis

 

Read the full case study

Luxury car manufacturer identified significant concentration risks in their supply chain

  • ~10 previously unknown Tier 2 and Tier 3 concentrations identified, many with high risk
  • 6 bottlenecks identified where suppliers had more than 15 downstream dependencies.

Read the full case study

FAQs

It’s a process that identifies and evaluates risks across your entire supply network, including hidden sub-tier suppliers. Marsh’s Sentrisk platform uses advanced data and AI to uncover vulnerabilities and prioritise risks for better mitigation.

Sentrisk combines multiple risk factors like geopolitical, natural hazards, and supplier concentration into a proprietary scoring system. This ranks suppliers and sites by risk level, helping you focus on the most critical vulnerabilities.

Marsh uses a multi-dimensional risk scoring framework integrating geopolitical, climate, concentration, and operational risks, aligned with standards like ISO 31000. Scenario-based risk matrices model disruption likelihood and impact to prioritise responses.

Sentrisk models disruption scenarios to estimate operational downtime and translates these into financial losses like lost revenue and increased costs. Tools like the Tariff Simulator assess cost impacts from trade policy changes.

It’s modelling “what-if” disruption events to understand their impact and develop response plans. Sentrisk enables proactive decision-making by simulating supplier failures, tariff changes, and natural disasters before they happen.

Start with your existing supplier lists, spend data, and site locations. Perfect data isn’t required because Sentrisk uses AI to fill gaps and validate information, enabling quick and comprehensive risk assessments.

Yes, Sentrisk supports phased implementation, allowing you to focus on a specific product line, region, or supplier group. This approach helps manage scope, deliver early insights, and scale risk management over time.

Why Marsh?

Marsh combines deep industry experience with innovative technology to deliver unmatched supply chain risk management solutions. Our proprietary Sentrisk platform provides comprehensive visibility into multi-tier supply networks, enabling proactive risk assessment and scenario planning. 

With Marsh, you gain a trusted advisor who aligns risk insights with tailored insurance strategies to build resilient, well-protected supply chains. Marsh’s Global Supply Chain Practice, with a dedicated Supply Chain Centre of Excellence, provides specialised guidance and innovative solutions to strengthen supply chain risk management.

Featured insights

Stay informed with the latest insights and podcasts delivering expert guidance on managing today’s supply chain risks. 

Container yard in busy shipping area

Article

Supply chain trends in 2026

27/01/2026
Corporate business team and manager in a meeting

Podcast

Risk in Context Podcast: Building manufacturing resilience amid evolving trade agreements

10/02/2026
Dump truck at gold mine

Article

Diversifying and transforming rare earths supply chains

27/11/2025
Health care researchers working in life science laboratory

Article

A high dose of uncertainty: Navigating pharmaceutical tariffs

20/10/2025

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Take control of your supply chain risk with Sentrisk

Does your supply chain risk management function provide deep visibility into all your supplier relationships? Does it have a track record of providing data that can help secure enhanced business interruption coverage?

Many organisations remain vulnerable to risks they didn’t even know they had deep in their supply chain, or do not have robust supplier data to submit more detailed information to underwriters.

Request a Sentrisk demo to learn how you can uncover hidden risks and enhance your coverage.

  • Gain multi-tier supply chain visibility with detailed Supplier+ reports for deeper risk insight
  • Stay ahead of disruptions with real-time alerts and scenario impact analysis
  • Strengthen insurance submissions to secure higher PDBI and CBI coverage limits

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