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Preparing for tomorrow: Building resilience and closing gaps in risk

To explore the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026, Marsh specialists from across economics, cyber, supply chain, and workplace transformation gathered to unpack the risks and trends shaping the year ahead.

04/03/2026 · 6 minute read

As 2026 gets underway, the global risk landscape continues to evolve, growing in complexity and interconnectedness. Risks that once seemed distant or siloed, such as geopolitical tensions, cyber threats, workforce shortages, and supply chain fragility, are increasingly intertwined, each amplifying the other. At Marsh, understanding those dynamics is central to how we help organisations navigate uncertainty and find opportunity within it.

To explore the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026, Marsh specialists from across economics, cyber, supply chain, and workplace transformation gathered to unpack the risks and trends shaping the year ahead.

Economic outlook: Cautious optimism amid AI-driven growth

Rupert Watson, Global Head of Economics and Asset Allocation at Mercer, a business of Marsh, painted a cautiously optimistic picture for the global economy. After years shaped by high inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical tensions, the outlook for 2026 is one of reasonable growth, though not without caveats.

One significant driver is the ongoing AI investment boom, particularly in the United States, where sustained capital flows into digital infrastructure are driving productivity gains and buoying equity markets. This wealth effect, in turn, is expected to support consumer spending and broader economic activity. This dynamic has historical echoes: just as electrification and computing transformed economies in their time, AI’s substitution of capital for labour may mark a similar generational shift.

For the UK, the narrative is generally more positive than commonly perceived. Business confidence surveys point to stronger-than-expected activity, with January 2026 showing some of the highest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) readings among developed economies. Notably, productivity growth, a key long-term driver of GDP and living standards, may be picking up after decades of stagnation. If that trend holds, the implications for GDP and living standards could be meaningful.

That said, risks remain. There is still a possibility that the US economy could overheat next year, depending on fiscal and monetary policy decisions. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks remain significant but inherently difficult to forecast, underscoring the need for robust risk management rather than precise prediction.

Cybersecurity: AI as both amplifier and antidote

Helen Nuttall, Marsh Risk’s Head of Cyber Incident Management, highlighted how AI is transforming the cyber threat landscape. The same technology driving economic optimism is also lowering the barriers to entry for cyber attackers, enabling even relatively unsophisticated actors to run highly convincing phishing and social engineering campaigns at scale. The rise of “agentic AI” — autonomous AI systems performing tasks traditionally performed by humans — introduces new vulnerabilities, including the risk of AI being manipulated or hacked.

What has not changed is the centrality of human behaviour. Attackers continue to exploit human tendencies to be helpful, often targeting vulnerable groups. - Board-level engagement on cyber resilience is critical, with practical steps like regular staff training, phishing exercises, incident response planning, and tabletop simulations key to building resilience.  The UK government’s advice to maintain printed copies of incident response plans is a useful reminder that when systems go down, playbooks stored on corporate networks may be the first casualty. Implementation of out-of-band communications solutions can keep such plans up to date and ensure incident responders are able to react quickly and effectively.

Looking further ahead, quantum computing represents a longer-term cyber risk. The eventual arrival of “Q Day” — when quantum processing power becomes capable of breaking current cryptographic standards — may still be years away, but the lead times involved in upgrading security infrastructure mean the time to start planning is now.

Supply chain and geopolitical risks: Resilience over efficiency

James Crask, Marsh Risk’s Global Supply Chain Practice Leader, brought the geopolitical risk picture into sharp focus. The geopolitical risk index has surged 60% since 2010, reflecting increased political polarisation, conflicts, and economic instability. For supply chains, the consequences are tangible. Data from Marsh’s Sentrisk shows that 94% of organisations have at least one supplier in a conflict zone, and 65%  have at least one critical single point of failure  hidden in their upstream supply chain.

The speed and scale at which supply chain risks can materialise is what makes them particularly challenging. The traditional logic of supply chain optimisation that pursues efficiency, concentrates suppliers, and minimises redundancy, has often proven costly when disruption strikes. Organisations that used the tariff changes in 2025, and other recent disruptive events, as a forcing function to diversify their supplier base and build alternative relationships were, in many cases, better placed to absorb shocks and capture available opportunities.

The required shift in mindset is from optimism to resilience, encouraging efficiency, redundancy, flexibility, and the ability to act quickly. Scenario planning has a valuable role here by stress-testing responses to severe but plausible events, and to identify where consequential gaps lie.

Talent and workforce transformation: The golden thread of risk

Maura Jarvis, Marsh UK Transformation Leader, made the case that talent is the thread connecting other risk categories. Without the right people, with the right skills in the right roles, risk management frameworks can fall short. As of February 2026, the UK has around 726,000 unfilled vacancies, with acute shortages in the hospitality, healthcare, and manufacturing sectors. Compounding this, the UK is generally becoming a less competitive destination for global talent, with high living costs, taxation, and restrictive visa policies making it difficult to attract skilled workers who have alternatives in the Middle East, Asia, and elsewhere.

To address talent and workforce trends, organisations may consider rethinking work design, embracing AI to automate repetitive tasks, and adopting flexible working models. Retention strategies are equally important, such as ongoing listening programmes for employees, fostering inclusive cultures, and ensuring fair pay and career development opportunities.

Pay equity and transparency are emerging as strategic differentiators, even in the absence of UK legislation comparable to the EU. Organisations that proactively address these issues can often better attract and retain top talent, especially among younger generations who tend to place high value on meaningful work and career growth.

The role of boards: From crisis reaction to strategic resilience

Many organisations have developed genuine capabilities to manage crises, but few have invested systematically in preventing them. Boards have a critical role in closing that gap. Scenario planning, tabletop exercises, and cyber incident simulations can help to identify gaps, align leadership teams, and sharpen decision-making.  

Boards should balance attention across diverse risks, including cyber, climate, supply chains, geopolitics, and talent. The pace of change means that resilience can’t be a one-time investment. It requires continuous review, a culture that enables rapid and coordinated responses, and the organisational humility to acknowledge that the next disruption may look nothing like the last.

Embracing complexity with confidence

The 2026 risk landscape is marked by uncertainty, rapid technological change, and geopolitical volatility. Yet, as the panel discussion made clear, these challenges also present opportunities for organisations that embrace innovation, invest in resilience, and prioritise people strategies.

For businesses, the path forward lies in integrating these insights into dynamic, holistic, forward-looking risk strategies. By doing so, organisations can not only survive but thrive amid complexity, turning risk into a source of competitive advantage.

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