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Cleared for take-off, but is aviation ready for a changing climate?

Airport infrastructure projects run into billions, with assets spanning up to 60 years or more. Are these being designed and insured for the climate environment they will operate in?

04/14/2026 · 4 minute read

Airports are among the most complex and consequential pieces of infrastructure on the planet. They sit at the intersection of global commerce, tourism, supply chains, and national connectivity — and they are built to last decades. That long-term horizon makes the twin pressures of decarbonization and escalating climate risk not just environmental concerns, but urgent risk management challenges.

A sector built for growth

Despite the turbulence of recent years, the long-term trajectory for global aviation remains one of expansion. Demand for air travel continues to climb, and the infrastructure investment pipeline reflects this confidence. In the UK alone, major development programs are advancing at Heathrow, Gatwick, and Luton airports — investments designed to meet projected passenger growth well into the 2040s and beyond. The Middle East, meanwhile, is in the midst of an aviation build-out: Saudi Arabia’s NEOM and the planned King Salman International Airport in Riyadh sit alongside continued expansion at Dubai International and Abu Dhabi’s Zayed International, as regional governments bet heavily on aviation as an economic cornerstone.

These are not small bets. Airport infrastructure projects routinely run into the tens of billions of dollars, with long development timelines and asset lives spanning 40 to 60 years or more. For risk managers, this creates a critical question: are these assets being designed and insured for the climate environment they will actually operate in?

The decarbonization imperative

Aviation accounts for roughly 2.5% of global CO₂ emissions — a figure that rises considerably when non-CO₂ warming effects are included. The sector faces intense pressure to decarbonize, with commitments to net-zero by 2050 now widespread across airports, airlines, and regulators. Investments in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), electric ground operations, and low-carbon terminal design are accelerating.

But decarbonization is only one half of the climate equation. The other — and arguably a more immediate risk concern — is adaptation. As the climate changes, airports face a growing catalog of physical hazards that threaten both assets and operations.

When the desert floods: A wake-up call from Dubai

In April 2024, Dubai International Airport — one of the world’s busiest hubs for international travel — faced significant disruption caused by rainfall on a scale the region had not seen in 75 years. In under 24 hours, the airport recorded 164mm of rain; in some areas of the UAE, totals reached 254mm — exceeding the country’s entire average annual rainfall in a single event.

The operational consequences were severe. More than 1,500 flights were delayed or cancelled across three days, with hundreds of thousands of passengers stranded. Floodwater penetrated terminal buildings and inundated runways; roads to the airport became impassable, cutting off passengers, crew, and critically, food and supply deliveries.

The financial toll was substantial. Estimated insured property losses across the UAE ranged from US$650 million to US$850 million, with Guy Carpenter estimating overall insurance losses for the broader Gulf flooding event at US$2.9 billion to US$3.4 billion. For the airport specifically, the costs spanned direct property damage, business interruption (BI), passenger compensation obligations, cargo disruption, and reputational harm to the airport’s status as a global transit hub.

This was not an isolated incident. In the summer of 2024, Milan Malpensa Airport experienced flooding that disrupted operations across the region. Valencia, Spain, saw unprecedented flash flooding that submerged runways later that autumn. And in South America, Brazil’s Salgado Filho International Airport in Porto Alegre was forced to close for five months in 2024 following catastrophic flooding driven by extreme precipitation — a closure with profound consequences for regional connectivity and economic activity.

The scale of the challenge 

These events are harbingers, not outliers. The World Economic Forum has estimated that the cumulative financial impact of climate-related disruption to aviation — encompassing flight cancellations, diversions, airport closures, infrastructure damage, and cargo disruption — could reach US$500 billion by 2050. Research elsewhere highlights that sea level rise alone, under a 2°C warming scenario, would place 100 airports below mean sea level, with over 1,200 airports situated within low-elevation coastal zones. 

The global risk of airport route disruption from sea level rise could increase by a factor of 17 to 69 by 2100, depending on emissions trajectories. According to the same research, maintaining current risk levels through adaptation investment in 2100 could cost up to US$57 billion globally.

Climate hazards facing airports fall into two broad categories: airside risks, including clear-air turbulence, changing wind regimes, and extreme heat affecting runway integrity and aircraft performance; and ground-side risks, encompassing flooding, sea-level rise, and extreme precipitation events. For risk managers, the distinction matters because the insurance products, loss scenarios, and mitigation levers can differ significantly across these categories.

Baking resilience into the build

The risk management implications are clear. As airports expand and new facilities are developed, climate resilience cannot be treated as an optional add-on; it must be embedded in the design brief, the planning process, and the risk transfer structure from day one.

There are encouraging signs that operators are taking this seriously. Drainage systems across Charles de Gaulle and Orly airports are being upgraded to handle higher peak flows. Munich Airport has implemented decentralized rainwater management and flood-resilient site planning. These are forward-looking interventions that can reduce long-term risk.

For the broader pipeline of airport development — including the major UK and Middle Eastern projects — the challenge is to learn from recent loss events and integrate climate scenario analysis into infrastructure planning. Considerations may include:

  • Stress-testing designs against plausible worst-case flood and heat events informed by updated climate projections, not historical averages. 
  • Reviewing the adequacy of drainage capacity, terminal flood barriers, airfield surface drainage, and access road resilience. 
  • Developing business continuity plans that reflect the multi-day disruption scenarios that Dubai and Porto Alegre have demonstrated are entirely realistic.

The risk mitigation terminal

For the insurance and risk management industry, the convergence of large-scale airport expansion and rising climate risk demands fresh attention to accumulated exposure, coverage terms, and property and BI insurance limits. The Dubai event demonstrated how quickly losses can escalate across property damage, BI, aviation liability, and passenger compensation — and how interconnected the exposures can be across a single hub.

The return on investment case for proactive resilience spending is compelling: the costs of doing nothing consistently exceed the costs of preparation. For risk managers, the aircraft may be cleared for takeoff, but the ground beneath them may need urgent attention.

Our people

Ed Woolcock

Director, Strategic Risk Consulting UK

Charles Sincock

Managing Director, Strategy and Sustainability Lead

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