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Securing assets in a volatile world: Building mining resilience against geopolitical risk

11/14/2025 · 4 minute read

The mining sector sits at the heart of the global economy and is a foundational component of the energy transition. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts pose unique and unpredictable risks to commodities markets and mining operations globally.

The unpredictable, time-sensitive nature of geopolitical events can have immediate repercussions on the production of critical resources. Unplanned disruptions—stemming from geopolitical shocks, along with climate events, equipment failures, cyberattacks, or people risks—can halt production, drive financial losses, and undermine stakeholder confidence. Building business resilience in this volatile political environment requires a comprehensive political risk management strategy.

Mining at the intersection of geopolitical tension

The mining sector is uniquely exposed to geopolitical tensions due to the high international competition and demand for the critical materials and metals necessary for industrial development, electrification, and decarbonization efforts. For instance, demand for lithium is expected to surge by 40 times by 2040.

This reliance creates vulnerabilities, particularly as the production and processing of critical minerals tend to be concentrated in a few countries. This concentration exacerbates supply constraints. Latin America, for example, a region with high political volatility, holds over half of the world’s lithium, two-fifths of its copper, and a quarter of its nickel.

This concentration often gives rise to resource nationalism. Resource nationalism occurs when countries assert control over their natural resources, prioritizing domestic ownership to maximize economic benefits. For foreign-owned mines, this can manifest as:

  • Raising mining sector taxes and imposing new regulations and fines.
  • Introducing export restrictions and local beneficiation requirements.
  • Forcing contract renegotiations.
  • Expropriating foreign-owned assets and investments.

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Navigating political volatility and societal scrutiny

Geopolitical volatility is intensified by two key factors: elections and social awareness:

  1. Global elections influence policy: Uncertainties about election outcomes and potential new policy directions present difficult risks to anticipate. A new administration can introduce favorable or restrictive policies that indirectly or directly impact a mine's operational costs, profitability, and global relationships. Political turmoil can also deter investment in a certain region altogether.
  2. Heightened societal awareness: Mining organizations must seriously consider the social consequences of geopolitical risks. Protests from local communities or Indigenous Peoples and local communities (IPLCs) can escalate, potentially leading to blockades of key supply routes or even mine closures. Mining organizations must demonstrate how their operations will positively impact the surrounding community and environment to reinforce their value and maintain their License to Operate (LTO).

Four opportunities to manage geopolitical risk

While mining leaders cannot control volatility, they can implement meaningful risk mitigation and management measures to reassure investors and communities of long-term stability.

Understanding the inherent and evolving risks in your operating region is crucial. Leaders must stay abreast of current events, navigate the regulatory environment, and conduct a thorough political risk analysis. This analysis typically provides insight into political violence, expropriation/nationalization risks, restrictions on fund conversion, credit risks, and labor practices.

The complex, far-reaching nature of mining supply chains means disruptions can quickly threaten anticipated returns. Prioritizing supply chain visibility beyond Tier 1 relationships, potentially through advanced analytics or supply chain mapping, allows organizations to identify vulnerabilities. Strengthening measures include diversifying suppliers across different regions to buffer against instability.

Developing strong relationships with government officials, community leaders, Indigenous Peoples, and local communities (IPLCs) is vital for establishing and maintaining a positive presence and retaining LTO. Mining organizations should develop a comprehensive community engagement strategy—offering employment, training, and investments in infrastructure (like schools or hospitals)—to contribute to societal betterment.

External advisors can provide valuable insights into emerging trends and potential threats that internal teams might overlook. They can facilitate scenario planning and tabletop exercises to prepare for contingencies. An advisor can also help diversify risk across different assets, markets, or regions, which helps companies navigate fluctuations in political climates and enhances overall resilience.

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Secure your future: download the full report today

Remaining vigilant regarding the consequences of a volatile geopolitical landscape is critical as governments worldwide rely on mines for the resources needed to meet ambitious sustainability goals. Resourcing for tomorrow: Building resilience for mining companies  highlights five crucial risk areas with the greatest implications for miners today. 

To learn how to build resilience against climate events, equipment failures, cyberattacks, geopolitical shocks, and people risks and fully understand their interconnected exposures, download the complete guide.

Download the full report to master the 5 critical risks for modern mining resilience.

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