はじめに
マーシュP&Iクラブ アップデート2025年度では、P&Iクラブへのアンケートを通じて各クラブのマーケットの見方を集約しました。P&Iクラブの制度の特異性と取り巻く環境の変動を踏まえると、各クラブが現在直面している課題は複雑で多岐にわたります。
2025年6月にも同様に、各P&Iクラブに10のトピックスについてアンケートを実施しています。（Figure 1を参照）ここで、各クラブにとって、それぞれの課題についてどの程度関心が強いかランク付けをして頂きました。このアンケートを通じて、課題に深く関わる方々から、様々な見解を頂きました。
多くのクラブは引受収益改善を最重要課題としていますが、今後のトレンドの見方は様々です。次いで、船員の供給状況やフリーリザーブも高い関心を集めました。ＡＩなどの技術革新、持続可能性、ダークフリート、ブロードチャーチ*1、チャーン効果*2、国営クラブの設立などの項目は、それほど強い関心はないようであり、P&I市場の回復力と適応力に対して慎重ながらも概ね楽観的な見通しを反映しています。
*1ブロードチャーチ：特定の船種に対する公平性の欠如。
*2チャーン効果：老齢船が新造船と代替し保険料単価が下がることで、リスクに対する保険料確保が不十分となること。
Figure 1. Average scores for ten topics
P&I clubs
selected option
- P&I club: 10 key concerns
- P&I club KPIs
A concise overview of managers’ insights on the critical risks and strategic priorities shaping the P&I market.
Technical results
The majority of clubs ranked technical underwriting performance as their primary concern (see Figure 2). While Gard ranked it as the lowest concern, most other clubs did not agree with the view that there has been “a period of increased premiums compared to risk exposure.”
We also asked clubs to share their perspective on the technical deterioration, and to assess whether it signals a broader trend. Responses varied:
- Britannia attributed decline in technical results to “a number of extraordinary events…which seem to be one-off,” and noted that these had not been repeated to date in 2025.
- Steamship echoed that view, pointing out that the level of attritional claims has remained stable despite an increase in membership. They noted that “fluctuations, sometimes significant, in the level of large claims from one year to the next are to be expected.”
- NorthStandard appeared to share this view, noting that “the numbers [of large claims] returned to the average...but the value of these claims was double the recent average.”
- The London P&I Club offered a comparable view, stating that “the number of notified claims has not been particularly unusual, though the value is high,” but they did not see this as indicative of a trend.
- In contrast, the UK Club highlighted “underlying drivers” behind the trend towards larger claims, which they do not expect to reverse.
- The Swedish Club echoed this concern, observing that “while large claims often develop unpredictably, their cost trend remains upwards.”
Figure 2. Technical results ranking
Crew availability
Crew availability ranked as the second greatest concern, highlighting a significant non-financial challenge (see Figure 3). As the global fleet continues to grow, the pool of quality crew remains stretched, making crew availability an increasing concern. While clubs can support their members through crew training and well-being programs, there are inherent limitations to what they can do directly.
The American Club’s comment that clubs provide “educational platforms, tools, and guidance… [that] focus on seafarer wellness and morale” is consistent with views of other industry participants. These initiatives aim to address crew shortages indirectly by enhancing crew retention, morale, and overall well-being, but the broader challenge of crew availability remains a key concern.
Figure 3. Crew availability ranking
Free reserves
Ranking as the third greatest in level of concern was the issue of club free reserves (see Figure 4). We framed the survey question on free reserves within the context of ratings agencies, probing clubs’ reactions to accumulation of surplus funds to preserve (or improve) ratings. Clubs generally appeared to view capital adequacy as a board-level decision made independently of ratings agencies.
There is client interest in the subject of free reserves, although a minority of clubs directly addressed this question.
- The London Club responded that “ratings are part of the landscape in which we operate,” and that “clubs rightly try to either preserve their current ratings or look for ways in which they can secure a rating increase to attract a greater range of members.”
- Skuld commented that “free reserves play a role in [not only] appeasing the ratings agencies,” highlighting the strategic importance of reserves.
- Shipowners noted that free reserves support “rating agency financial strength ratings” as well as regulatory requirements.
- West offered that “the capital of a club is now largely dictated by the ratings agencies,” though they qualified this by emphasising the greater importance of the European Union’s Solvency II regime.
While the candour of the noted club comments is welcome, the discourse is limited. The topic is complex, and the strategic use of reserves continues to be a nuanced issue.
Figure 4. Free reserves ranking
Technology
Technology, including AI, along with sustainability considerations, the dark fleet, investment income, and churn all received similar concern rankings.
The question regarding technology elicited broadly similar responses from clubs, with each ranking it roughly in the middle of their concern spectrum (see Figure 5). This may reflect uncertainty surrounding how technological advancements will evolve and at what pace. Clubs appeared to prefer maintaining a balanced outlook, avoiding both excessive optimism about technological potential and undue worry about its challenges.
Figure 5. Technology ranking
Sustainability
Sustainability emerged as the primary concern for Gard and the Japan P&I Club, likely reflecting their domiciles in regions where these issues are high on national agendas (see Figure 6). West identified sustainability as a major concern and provided a detailed commentary on the challenges it presents for managers and members.
In contrast, the London club ranked sustainability as its lowest concern, noting that reporting members’ emissions is essentially a zero-sum game. They also highlighted that the International Group reflects “global efforts by shipowners to decarbonise.”
Figure 6. Sustainability ranking
Dark fleet
Responses regarding the dark fleet varied — it ranked bottom of the list for West but emerged as the UK Club’s greatest concern (see Figure 7).
Gard scored the dark fleet as their second highest concern, and highlighted the potential for the loss of dark fleet business from the clubs, warning that over time this could “undermine international institutions.”
A key aspect of this issue appeared to be the fragmentation of insurance for major P&I risks, especially pollution.
Figure 7. Dark fleet ranking
Churn
P&I clubs frequently cite fleet churn — where new vessels are added to fleets at lower premiums than existing vessels with similar exposure — as a potential destabilising factor. However, its relatively low ranking in our survey may reflect that clubs do not anticipate substantial recycling activity (see Figure 8).
Figure 8. Fleet churn ranking
Investment income
As we carried out the survey in June, worries earlier in 2025 about the potential impact of tariffs and counter tariffs appeared to have eased. Clubs reported that investment returns are holding steady at 2024 levels — or even improving — in 2025, which has lowered the priority of investment income concerns for most respondents.
Figure 9. Investment income ranking
Broad church
The generally low concern rankings for the “broad church” concept suggest confidence in the P&I clubs’ ability to serve the needs of shipowners (see Figure 10). However, some shipowners believe this confidence should be tested in key areas. Club members continue to desire visibility into changes to their vessel categories and view current passenger limits as inadequate for large cruise vessels. Two clubs with sizable cruise membership, Gard and Steamship, ranked the “broad church” issue as a higher concern than other clubs.
Figure 10. Broad church ranking
National P&I clubs
Finally, none of the clubs regarded the reported increase in interest in national P&I clubs, such as those in India and the United Arab Emirates, as a significant concern (see Figure 11). This may reflect confidence in the current P&I system’s ability to deliver the coverage, limits, and service its members desire in a cost-effective way.
Figure 11. National P&I clubs ranking
A snapshot of performance metrics for each P&I club, including underwriting results, reserves, claims activity, and investment returns - providing a clear and quick view of emerging trends and club performance.
The American Club
In 2024, The American Club delivered one of the stronger technical results among the P&I clubs. Although investment income declined year-on-year, the club achieved an operating profit for the first time in five years. The club’s entered tonnage shrank compared to the previous year. While premium income per GT increased, incurred claims per GT also rose, albeit at a lower margin. The American Club’s free reserves remain relatively thin, in absolute terms and relative to the club’s scale.
Britannia
After several years of steady progress towards technical breakeven, Britannia recorded a significant underwriting loss in 2024. In addition to some one-off factors, such as funding a dispute related to the club’s Brexit strategy, the club also highlighted the impact of higher pool claims experienced industry-wide in 2024. Furthermore, Britannia reported an unexpected rise in the cost of larger retained claims. The stagnation of premium income throughout 2024 was a cause of concern. However, Britannia’s operating loss was partially offset by a strong investment performance, resulting in only a modest reduction in the club’s surpluses.
Gard
Gard continued to report the highest premium income, largest total balance sheet, and greatest surplus funds among all clubs. It also maintained a strong track record of accretive operating results. Aside from incurred claims and administrative expenses, which are expected to rise in line with increased business volumes, all of Gard’s key performance indicators (KPIs) over the past five years remain significantly positive. Gard is rated A+ by S&P Global.
Japan P&I Club
Japan P&I Clubは、小幅ながら過去2年間で獲得した引受利益を基盤として、2024年度決算では大幅増益となりました。2024年度の支払い保険金の大幅な減少も主な要因の一つです。過去5年間でJapan P&I Clubの発生保険金が着実に減少してきましたが、これは加入トン数の減少が一因と考えられます。加入トン数の減少は、トン当たりフリーリザーブ比率の上昇にもつながりました。
London Club
In 2024, the London Club experienced a return to growth in entered tonnage, although the club shows a negative trend on this KPI over the five-year period. Following an unusually low claims year in 2023, 2024 saw claims revert to a more typical level for the club — still lower than the 2020 to 2022 period. London Club’s positive five-year performance on this KPI may not be significantly influenced by lower tonnage. A 13% year-on-year increase in premium income in 2024 brought the club close to technical breakeven. Strong investment income further enabled London Club to achieve a healthy operating profit, contributing to solid growth in its surplus fund.
NorthStandard
NorthStandard experienced a year-on-year increase in claims costs from 2023 to 2024. However, the club achieved a significant rise in premium income for 2024, which, combined with a strong investment performance, helped transform a substantial technical loss into an almost breakeven operating result. As a result, the impact on NorthStandard’s surplus funds was minimal. Although NorthStandard’s five-year entered tonnage KPI remained in negative territory, the club recovered most of the merger-related breakage. NorthStandard’s free reserves KPI continued to sit just below pre-merger levels.
The Shipowners’ Club
All core KPIs for the Shipowners’ Club showed positive trends, including steady and reliable growth in entered tonnage, consistent premium growth that keeps pace with rising claims costs, and sustained growth in surplus funds. The club experienced a setback in its operating KPI in 2022 due to a poor investment return, primarily driven by pressure on fixed income asset prices and weaker performance in non-US dollar denominated investments. With investment returns rebounding and a strong technical performance supporting the P&L, the club’s trajectory remained toward solid overall performance.
Skuld
Skuld saw a spike in claims costs in 2024. Despite this, Skuld achieved a healthy increase in premium income and recorded a strong investment return, enabling the club to deliver a solid operating KPI notwithstanding a technical loss. This performance led to an increase in Skuld’s surplus funds following consecutive years of decline.
Additionally, the club experienced growth in entered tonnage. Looking ahead, Skuld will be hoping for claims levels to return to the more typical range seen in recent prior years, which would support further contributions to its free reserves.
Steamship
While some aspects of Steamship’s current results are slightly weaker compared to the prior year, the club maintains positive scores across all KPIs over the five-year period, except for claims and administrative costs. Given the entered tonnage has grown by nearly 50% since 2020, it is unsurprising that these costs in 2024 are somewhat higher than their 2020 equivalents. One notable year-on-year decline from 2023 to 2024 was in incurred claims. Analysis supports the view expressed in our survey that 2024 was an atypical year with claims costs fluctuating unexpectedly outside the normal pattern, similar to 2020. Claims costs per gross tonnage (GT) were US$2.92 in 2020 and US$3.12 in 2024, figures that are similar in real terms when adjusted for inflation. The average between 2021 to 2023 was US$2.43.
The Swedish Club
A feature of The Swedish Club’s financial performance is its incurred claims KPI. While the club’s entered tonnage has grown modestly over the five-year period, claims have decreased. The Swedish Club has demonstrated positive developments in its claims KPI over this timeframe. Additionally, it reported a technical profit in 2024.
UK Club
Strong investment performance allowed UK Club to report its second consecutive operating profit in 2024. The club’s entered tonnage KPI demonstrated steady growth, and premium income increased in real terms over the five-year period. However, premium income appears to have slowed in 2024 compared to 2023, while claims incurred rose by around 10% on a US$ per GT basis. Over the longer term, claims costs increased at a slower pace than premium income, allowing UK Club’s free reserves to remain broadly stable. Although the scale of the technical loss in 2024 is notable, the club’s progress has generally been positive.
West
Over the five-year horizon, West has demonstrated almost entirely positive KPIs. West grew in entered tonnage, and at least proportionally in premium income. Net incurred claims in 2024 were lower than in 2020, despite the club being larger in terms of entered GT at that time. On a US$ per GT basis, claims increased in 2024 compared to 2023 at a significantly faster rate than premium. Strong investment income enabled the club to record a healthy operating profit.
2026年における更改の見通し
2026年の更改に関する見通しは見解が混在しています。一部のクラブは、保有範囲内（USD10mil）の大口クレームやプールクレームの多発した事象を、想定の範囲内と捉えていますが、その他のクラブは、これに応じた引受収益の改善が必要になると見解を示しています。
また、Covid-19/ポストCovid-19下の好運賃環境で延命された高船齢船が、市況の悪化に伴い集中して売船された場合には、チャーン効果が進むことから、更改交渉判断に影響を及ぼすものと思われます。
多くのクラブは2025年も引き続いて良好な投資収益を維持しているとしていますが、長期的にはマクロ経済動向および地政学的変化の影響などの懸念材料が、依然として残ります。
2024年度の実績を受けて楽観的な見通しを持つクラブであっても、2025年度中に厳しさに直面する可能性があります。歴史的に見ると、春の楽観論から秋の慎重論へとシフトする傾向があります。
また、クラブは2026年度のさらなる保険料引き上げに慎重な姿勢を示す可能性もあります。2024年度の保険クレーム請求の急増は特異であったと考えられています。2025年度前半のプールクレーム発生常用は2024年度の水準より大幅に低く、2024年度に引受損を計上したクラブのほとんどは投資収益でこれを補っており、フリーリザーブおよびソルベンシーカバレッジレシオは高水準を維持しています。
